This week’s regime change in Libya is a welcome development. The Libyan people can look forward to a much brighter future, even if the short or medium term may be messy, or even mildly Islamist. Lets not forget that the former dictator was an out and out terrorist who made Libya a pariah nation. Gadhafi was behind Lockberie, and provided support to terror groups from Palestine to Ireland. He became such a thorn in the side of the West that Ronald Reagan ordered air raids against his Tripoli home, killing his adopted daughter. In some ways, Gadhafi never changed. In recent years, he made common cause with Hugo Chavez, our own hemisphere’s rogue. But this alliance was probably more annoying than anything else. (Given Chavez’ determination to cause problems for the U.S., nothing should be taken for granted.) For all of this though, Gadhafi had in fact reached an uneasy coexistence with the West in recent years. He had given up his WMD program, and begun a domestic modernization program. Gadhafi may have been a bad man, but was no longer an immediate threat to the West. Though overthrow may be a compelling story, it will have little impact on U.S. security (with the possible side-effect of missiles falling in the hands of Al Qaeda or other groups).
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Syria is, however, quite a different story. Its dictatorship may be just as bad as Libya’s (even if Hafez Assad, was initially seen as something of a reformer), but its geopolitical role is quite different. It is involved in virtually every trouble spot of note in the Middle East. It is in direct conflict with Israel. It is an indispensable player in Lebanon, backing Hizbollah, its divisive and destructive terrorist group/government. It borders Iraq, and has the potential to cause us problems there. It is, however, its relationship with Iran that should really make us sit up. Syria is a largely Sunni country, but run by Alawites – a small sect closer to the Shia Islam of Iran. It serves as Iran’s beachhead into the Arab World, aiding its climb to regional power status, something that we inadvertently made possible by removing Saddam Hussein, its traditional rival. United States foreign policy experts are clear that Iran poses a direct threat to our allies in Europe and Israel. Indeed our anti ballistic missile program is specifically aimed at defending from Iranian attacks. As importantly, Iran is a threat to our Sunni Arab allies in the Gulf, seeking to eclipse Saudi leadership, even “liberating” US allies such as Bahrain, a Shia-majority country ruled by Sunnis, and home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. The competition between the Sunni Gulf headed by Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran is perhaps the most dangerous fault line in the region. Fallout from it could impact oil supplies so critical to the world economy.
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Iran poses a real threat to our allies in Europe, Israel and the Sunni-dominated Gulf. Syria plays a key role in its grand strategy to become the dominant regional power. What happens in Syria is therefore of direct consequence to us. We may not be intervening in Syria, militarily, the way we did in Libya, but we should be far more concerned.
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