NATO has been the most successful military alliance in human history. It served as the bulwark, not just for the Western World against the USSR, but for freedom against totalitarianism globally. That it won without ever having fought an actual war is a real testament to its strategy and its commitment. However, its very success has rendered it without a role. No question, war hasn’t gone away, and that too war involving Western powers. But with the off exception of Bosnia, war in the European continent seems largely a matter of the past (at least right now it does). “Out of area”, the US & Europe do face challenges – from Afghanistan to Libya, and NATO has tried to become the main vehicle for Western military engagement. But this has not worked. Its become more a coalition of the willing – the very thing that NATO was not meant to be. In practice, it is now a coalition where America (with assistance from Britain) defending everyone else. Article 5 bound was supposed to bind members to their common defense.
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The world has changed and NATO has tried, unsuccessfully, to change with it. I believe the only way to save NATO, is to fundamentally rethink its purpose. Without a successful revision, its members (particularly the United States) will ultimately walk away, if not now, then in 10 years. First of all, lets be clear. The Soviet threat is over. Russia is not its replacement. The need therefore for an Article 5, drawing a line in the sand against the expansion of the Eastern block, is moot. Obliging the U.S. to defend say Lithuania against a Russian attack is both foolhardy and foolish. First, we risk an attack on US cities for something that is not a US priority, and second, we would never actually do it. So why the charade? NATO actually weakens its own credibility when it promises something that everyone knows it will never actually deliver.
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NATO needs to be a flexible group of allied countries, committed to each other’s security and with interoperability among its militaries to conduct joint exercises. Countries will align for the common good, but there is no do-or-die military obligation. Simply put, the current environment no longer calls for this. Ending Article 5 will go a long way to ending the free-loading off the US, something we can no longer afford. Wealthy Europe can pay for its own defense, or not have one. It may be that we do have an Article 5 style arrangement with some countries – a hub and spoke system that we have in Asia – but that can only be with important countries who are critical to us, and who are willing to share the burden eg Britain or maybe France.
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To keep NATO alive, it needs to be relevant. To be relevant it needs to be real, ie have a strategy that meets today’s world and have the credibility that people know it will back its words with action. NATO must remain the vehicle that binds the two sides of the Western World (North America and Europe). But it must be restructured for a world where the Soviets are gone, and neither Russia nor Al Qaeda replace it. A flexible alliance, devoid of non-credible do-or-die commitments, where each country is obliged to pony up for its own defense, may be best way of achieving it. It doesnt have to lessen our commitment to certain key countries where we have greater interests, but those can be negotiated separately, and not part a blanket all-for-one which has effectively turned into a club where America provides defense for everyone.
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