For all its problems with its neighbors, Israel entered this year with relative security on its once-volatile borders. Its southern front with Egypt was quiet, and it enjoyed peace – if a cold one – with that important Arab nation. It also had a peace treaty on its Eastern borders with Jordan too. In the North, Hizbollah was a threat, but a manageable one, especially since the Hariri regime in Lebanon was not interested in war. Moreover, Syria, the regional heavyweight in Lebanon, also had no stomach for conflict with Israel. The Palestinians, for all the problems, were committed to the Oslo peace accords, and so while things were stalled (much because of Jerusalem’s own intransigence), global pressure on the Jewish state was muted. Further afield, Israel enjoyed strong relations with Turkey, and US influence elsewhere in the Middle East kept other Arab governments off its back. In fact, the only real problem it faced was Ahmedinejad’s Iran, and even there American support was reassuring.
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What a difference a year can make. Virtually of all of Israel’s geopolitical certainties have been washed away, to be replaced with something far more ominous. Three key factors account for this.
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Most visibly, Israel’s relations with Turkey have fallen off a cliff. While Gaza may have been the spark, it seems that Ankara has made a decision to switch course in the Arab World, and there is little Israel can do to reverse that. The long term implication of this is as unclear. Turkey has a historic role as the leader of the Islamic World. Any move to reclaim this position makes Ankara’s view of Israel far more critical than before. At this point, it seems that Erdogan has decided to use Israel as the rallying cry to garner support in the Arab Street (as can be seen by the welcome he enjoyed in Cairo).
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Secondly, the Arab Spring, which has unleashed popular anti-Zionist passions, is another cause for concern for Israel. The overthrow of Egypt’s pro-US Mubarak regime has made Israel’s peace with that country increasingly tenuous. While Cairo’s military government maintains that its peace agreement with Israel still stands, events on the ground (whether at the Israeli embassy in Cairo or in the Sinai) suggest otherwise. It is a very real possibility that Egypt will follow Turkey in downgrading ties with Israel. On its own this is a major problem. Add in turmoil in Syria, and you have the potential for a security crisis for Israel. If the Assad regime falls, there is every likelihood that it will be replaced by a more hostile Sunni regime, possibly Islamist.
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Underlying the above two factors, is perhaps the biggest long term cause of concern for Israel, and that is the relative strength of its biggest benefactor, the United States. As our own power in the region slips, Arab governments feel less need to make nice with the Jewish state. This can most noticeably be seen with the Palestinian decision to take recognition of its statehood to the UN. The Saudis, with whom we have enjoyed a special relationship since 1945, are making noises that they will downgrade relations with Washington if the US vetoes Palestinian statehood. This is something that would have been unthinkable a few years back. If there is another intifada (a very real possibility), a lack of US influence in Arab capitals will only add to Israel’s woes.
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On virtually every count, Israel will end this year in a vastly weaker geopolitical position than when it entered it. I have always maintained that Israel should make peace from strength. That position of strength has now passed. If Israel were to sit down with the Arabs today, I suspect they will find an opponent far more intransigent. This is a lost opportunity for Israel, one that I fear may not come back. Furthermore, heightened Israel-Arab tensions threaten our own standing in the Islamic World. Unflinching support for Israel (which is likely in an election year) will cost us far more dearly than only a year ago. It is going to take some deft diplomacy by Washington and some degree of flexibility by our Israeli ally to navigate these increasingly treacherous waters.
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