As Israel ponders a new isolation in its neighborhood (one where it was never really accepted even at the best of times), I find myself wondering if there isn’t another long term trend that will threaten it even more profoundly. Its just a slight trend that I am noticing, but one that if played out, would spell enormous problems. And that is the rightward shift of some Jewish American groups towards the GOP and away from the Democratic Party. This is something that Jewish American groups must avoid at all costs – lest it cost Israel dearly.
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Since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, US public opinion has swung firmly behind Israel. Supporting Israel has become an article of faith for both parties, responding as they are both to Jewish American activism and a strong Evangalical base whose support for Israel is unwavering. Bill Clinton once even said he would pick up a gun to defend Israel, a remarkable statement for a U.S. President to say about another country. People sometimes ask me why the U.S. support for Israel is so strong, and I answer that in many ways, Israel is a domestic issue more than a foreign policy one. Israel is us. Vast numbers of Americans, far beyond the Jewish community, identify with Israel (as they do with the English speaking world), and so an attack on Israel is seen as an attack on us – the geopolitics of the Middle East be damned.
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Given this bipartisan support, the White House has almost reflexively backed whichever party was in power in Jerusalem, even when it didn’t agree with it. This support has allowed Israel to weather all sorts of international pressure. Time and again, the U.S. uses its veto to protect it in at the United Nations. Israel could feel comfortable that this support was forthcoming because it was so broad based. But what if Israel were to stop being an article of faith in Washington, and become a political football between the two parties?
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As it is, Evangelicals almost exclusively back the Republican Party. For them, any sign of wavering by a Democratic President is an invitation for partisan attack. Traditionally, this hasn’t mattered as much as the Democratic Party itself (particularly in Congress) is full of staunch friends of Israel. In fact, Jewish American groups have traditionally been more liberal leaning than conservative. With the rise of the neo-conservatives, however, this is changing. More and more, vocal supporters of Israel are identifying with the Republican Party, and are using charges of lack of support for Israel to attack the Democratic Party. At the same time, I am beginning to see some liberal Jews far more circumspect in their support for Israel than their parents’ generation. What we are witnessing therefore is a situation where unconditional support for Israel could conceivably become consolidated in the Republican Party, and weaken in the Democratic Party. What was once an article of faith for both parties could become yet another issue that divides the parties.
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When an issue stops being bipartisan and becomes a part of the party wars, our ability to consistently speak as one voice is severely hampered. In a world where support for Israel increasingly is seen by Americans as a Republican issue, a future Democratic President may feel far less kinship with Israel than he or she would today. Unflinching support for Israel would then be dependent upon who was in the White House and what the composition of Congress was. Have no doubt, the Democratic Party isn’t about to abandon its historic support for Israel, but it may become far more conditional on who is in power in Jerusalem and what policies it pursues. This, in fact, has already begun to happen. Take this to its logical conclusion, and Israel may find its days of unwavering U.S. support a thing of the past.
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