THE DAILY EXCEPTION » United States

Is Israel losing bipartisan support?

Manish Thakur — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 14:39:30 +0000

As Israel ponders a new isolation in its neighborhood (one where it was never really accepted even at the best of times), I find myself wondering if there isn’t another long term trend that will threaten it even more profoundly. Its just a slight trend that I am noticing, but one that if played out, would spell enormous problems. And that is the rightward shift of some Jewish American groups towards the GOP and away from the Democratic Party. This is something that Jewish American groups must avoid at all costs – lest it cost Israel dearly.

Since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, US public opinion has swung firmly behind Israel. Supporting Israel has become an article of faith for both parties, responding as they are both to Jewish American activism and a strong Evangalical base whose support for Israel is unwavering. Bill Clinton once even said he would pick up a gun to defend Israel, a remarkable statement for a U.S. President to say about another country. People sometimes ask me why the U.S. support for Israel is so strong, and I answer that in many ways, Israel is a domestic issue more than a foreign policy one. Israel is us. Vast numbers of Americans, far beyond the Jewish community, identify with Israel (as they do with the English speaking world), and so an attack on Israel is seen as an attack on us – the geopolitics of the Middle East be damned.

Given this bipartisan support, the White House has almost reflexively backed whichever party was in power in Jerusalem, even when it didn’t agree with it. This support has allowed Israel to weather all sorts of international pressure. Time and again, the U.S. uses its veto to protect it in at the United Nations. Israel could feel comfortable that this support was forthcoming because it was so broad based. But what if Israel were to stop being an article of faith in Washington, and become a political football between the two parties?

As it is, Evangelicals almost exclusively back the Republican Party. For them, any sign of wavering by a Democratic President is an invitation for partisan attack. Traditionally, this hasn’t mattered as much as the Democratic Party itself (particularly in Congress) is full of staunch friends of Israel. In fact, Jewish American groups have traditionally been more liberal leaning than conservative. With the rise of the neo-conservatives, however, this is changing. More and more, vocal supporters of Israel are identifying with the Republican Party, and are using charges of lack of support for Israel to attack the Democratic Party. At the same time, I am beginning to see some liberal Jews far more circumspect in their support for Israel than their parents’ generation. What we are witnessing therefore is a situation where unconditional support for Israel could conceivably become consolidated in the Republican Party, and weaken in the Democratic Party. What was once an article of faith for both parties could become yet another issue that divides the parties.

When an issue stops being bipartisan and becomes a part of the party wars, our ability to consistently speak as one voice is severely hampered. In a world where support for Israel increasingly is seen by Americans as a Republican issue, a future Democratic President may feel far less kinship with Israel than he or she would today. Unflinching support for Israel would then be dependent upon who was in the White House and what the composition of Congress was. Have no doubt, the Democratic Party isn’t about to abandon its historic support for Israel, but it may become far more conditional on who is in power in Jerusalem and what policies it pursues. This, in fact, has already begun to happen. Take this to its logical conclusion, and Israel may find its days of unwavering U.S. support a thing of the past.

Filed under: 2012 Candidates on Defense & Security, Middle East & Africa, United States Tagged: bipartisan, Israel, Jewish American

Enhanced US presence in Asia – Cold War thinking or pragmatic way to keep the peace?

Manish Thakur — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 13:58:19 +0000

Anyone who knows me, or follows me on Twitter, knows that I am somewhat of a hawk when it comes to China. I acknowledge its rise – its rightful rise – and understand that the world order will change as a result of it. However, I also understand that other powers in Asia and the Pacific, including the United States, need to safeguard against this rise not being as smooth as Beijing suggests it will be. After all, nearly every major change in global power has resulted in war (with the exception of the handing of global leadership from the UK to the US, which was something of a special situation).

I have argued that Asia needs its own regional security grouping – an Asian NATO for want of a better term – that would serve as a bulwark for the rest of Asia. In fact, we need a multilateral security structure in Asia far more than we do in Europe. The locus of the world’s economic activity has shifted from Europe, and the USSR no longer threatens anyone. Admittedly, a NATO do-or-die alliance may be too premature for Asia, and we are not looking to provoke China. But the current situation does not inspire much confidence, either in our Asian allies or in China.

Lets look at the facts. In the past year, China has threatened Japan over disputed islands. It has issued stark warnings to the U.S. and Korea over sea exercises in the Yellow Sea (which it calls its “coastal waters”). It has told SouthEast Asia that it owns the entire South China Sea, and has threatened both Vietnam and the Philippines. It has even had an altercation with an Indian naval ship which was making a friendly call on Vietnam (and i am not even discussing China’s recent claim on an entire Himalayan border state). And of course, China continues to threaten Taiwan with war at the very mention of separation. All this is happening while China builds up its own military, particularly its maritime and cyber capabilities. Its not just its new aircraft carrier or stealth planes that worry me, but its anti-ship missiles that are clearly designed to deny the U.S. Navy access to Asia. Furthermore, it is eying bases across the Indian Ocean – not traditional military bases but stations nonetheless. Even distant Australia is now rearming. In the cyber realm, we have no idea the damage done to our national secrets by Chinese “students”.

China’s recent assertiveness has not gone unnoticed by an increasingly nervous Asia. Most countries in the region quietly are advocating for a stronger U.S. presence in Asia. We also belatedly recognize that this (as opposed to events in Afghanistan) is vital to our own interests, lest we be shut out of the center of the world’s manufacturing, trade and energy hub. Added to the concern about Chinese military intentions is the lack of trust engendered by its non-democratic system of government. I would argue that we are not an ideological struggle with China as we were with the USSR. We would have these same issues with China even if it were a democracy. However, a democratic country would be less opaque about its intentions. A democratic country would also not be as beholden to its nationalistic military, which the Chinese Communist party increasingly is, if only to keep its legitimacy.

The best way to keep the peace in Asia, and to ensure China’s peaceful rise, is a strong defense. It is something that would give the countries in Asia confidence that they will not be subjected to Chinese hegemony. It is something that would give us here in the United States confidence that we are not going to be shut out of Asia (China’s real aim). Most importantly, it would signal to the Chinese military that adventurism will not pay. Forming a regional security structure will cause shrieks of protest from Chinese nationalists. But I argue that it is in their own interests to keep the peace, and that this is the best way of doing so.

Advocating for a regional security bulwark to hedge against an assertive China, even one that does not carry the same guarantees ensured by NATO, is not Cold War thinking. Rather, it is a pragmatic approach to ensuring peace in a part of the world that is most vital to our interests.

Filed under: Asia/Pacific, Asian NATO, China, United States, US Defense Budget Tagged: Asian NATO, China, India, Japan, Korea, Philippines, South China Sea, Taiwan, US Navy

Top 3 Countries by Economic Dominance – 1870 to 2030 (Proj)

Manish Thakur — Sat, 10 Sep 2011 22:13:00 +0000

For what its worth, here is something I found in the Economist. I am not saying I agree with the 2030 projections, as history has a funny way of not working in straight lines. China should not take its continued high rate of economic growth for granted. By the same token, we should not take for granted the idea that we will remain the world’s most powerful nation for ever either.

Filed under: China, United States

19th Century British Politicians address America’s foreign policy dilemma today

Manish Thakur — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 10:43:53 +0000

I came across an article in The National Interest that caught my eye. The article is called “Once upon a time in Westphalia” and discusses how two British MPs, Richard Cobden and John Bright, made a convincing case for England not to interfere in the affairs of other nations. It highlights England’ undue concern about the internal workings of other countries (sound familiar), and why England would be better off eschewing all foreign entanglements. (Remember England shared the same messianic commitment to liberalism that many in America do today). Cobden’s dinner toast would be “No Foreign Policy”. Technology and globalization renders the idea of no foreign policy moot, but the main thrust of their argument still applies. I am not saying that I agree with this, but it is worth a read. Seems like some arguments withstand the test of time.

In all my travels . . . three reflections constantly occur to me: how much unnecessary solicitude and alarm England devotes to the affairs of foreign countries; with how little knowledge we enter upon the task of regulating the concerns of other people; and how much better we might employ our energies in improving matters at home.

Robert Cobden

How are the interests of England involved in this question? This is, after all, the great matter which we, the representatives of the people of England, have to consider. It is not a question of sympathy with any other State. I have sympathy with Turkey; I have sympathy with the serfs of Russia; I have sympathy with the people of Hungary, whose envoy the noble Lord the Member for Tiverton [Lord Palmerston, recently Foreign Secretary and soon to be prime minister] refused to see . . . I have sympathy with the Italians, subjects of Austria, Naples, and the Pope; I have sympathy with the three millions of slaves in the United States; but it is not on a question of sympathy that I dare involve this country, or any country, in a war which must cost an incalculable amount of treasure and of blood. It is not my duty to make this country the knight-errant of the human race, and to take upon herself the protection of the thousand millions of human beings who have been permitted by the Creator of all things to people this planet.

John Bright

For good measure, I am adding some words from our own Founding Father, George Washington, who speaks very much along the same lines.

Observe good faith and justice towards all Nations, cultivate peace and harmony with all; religion and morality enjoin this conduct; and can it be that good policy does not equally enjoin it? . . .

Why forego the advantages of so peculiar a situation? Why quit our own to stand upon foreign ground? Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, rivalship, interest, humour or caprice?

…nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations, and passionate attachments for others should be excluded; and that in place of them just and amicable feelings towards all should be cultivated. The Nation, which indulges towards another an habitual hatred, or an habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest. . . .

A passionate attachment of one Nation for another produces a variety of evils. Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest, in cases where no real common interest exists, and infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter, without adequate inducement or justification. It leads also to concessions to the favorite nation of privileges denied to others, which is apt doubly to injure the nation making the concessions; by unnecessarily parting with what ought to have been retained; and by exciting jealousy, ill will, and a disposition to retaliate, in the parties from whom equal privileges are withheld.

George Washington

Filed under: United States

To keep NATO relevant, make it less ambitious

Manish Thakur — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 11:46:36 +0000

NATO has been the most successful military alliance in human history. It served as the bulwark, not just for the Western World against the USSR, but for freedom against totalitarianism globally. That it won without ever having fought an actual war is a real testament to its strategy and its commitment. However, its very success has rendered it without a role. No question, war hasn’t gone away, and that too war involving Western powers. But with the off exception of Bosnia, war in the European continent seems largely a matter of the past (at least right now it does). “Out of area”, the US & Europe do face challenges – from Afghanistan to Libya, and NATO has tried to become the main vehicle for Western military engagement. But this has not worked. Its become more a coalition of the willing – the very thing that NATO was not meant to be. In practice, it is now a coalition where America (with assistance from Britain) defending everyone else. Article 5 bound was supposed to bind members to their common defense.

The world has changed and NATO has tried, unsuccessfully, to change with it. I believe the only way to save NATO, is to fundamentally rethink its purpose. Without a successful revision, its members (particularly the United States) will ultimately walk away, if not now, then in 10 years. First of all, lets be clear. The Soviet threat is over. Russia is not its replacement. The need therefore for an Article 5, drawing a line in the sand against the expansion of the Eastern block, is moot. Obliging the U.S. to defend say Lithuania against a Russian attack is both foolhardy and foolish. First, we risk an attack on US cities for something that is not a US priority, and second, we would never actually do it. So why the charade? NATO actually weakens its own credibility when it promises something that everyone knows it will never actually deliver.

NATO needs to be a flexible group of allied countries, committed to each other’s security and with interoperability among its militaries to conduct joint exercises. Countries will align for the common good, but there is no do-or-die military obligation. Simply put, the current environment no longer calls for this. Ending Article 5 will go a long way to ending the free-loading off the US, something we can no longer afford. Wealthy Europe can pay for its own defense, or not have one. It may be that we do have an Article 5 style arrangement with some countries – a hub and spoke system that we have in Asia – but that can only be with important countries who are critical to us, and who are willing to share the burden eg Britain or maybe France.

To keep NATO alive, it needs to be relevant. To be relevant it needs to be real, ie have a strategy that meets today’s world and have the credibility that people know it will back its words with action. NATO must remain the vehicle that binds the two sides of the Western World (North America and Europe). But it must be restructured for a world where the Soviets are gone, and neither Russia nor Al Qaeda replace it. A flexible alliance, devoid of non-credible do-or-die commitments, where each country is obliged to pony up for its own defense, may be best way of achieving it. It doesnt have to lessen our commitment to certain key countries where we have greater interests, but those can be negotiated separately, and not part a blanket all-for-one which has effectively turned into a club where America provides defense for everyone.

Filed under: 2012 Candidates on Defense & Security, Asian NATO, Europe, NATO, United States, US Defense Budget Tagged: Article 5, NATO

Hard Headed Liberal Foreign Policy

Manish Thakur — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 09:52:26 +0000

I am not in the habit of calling myself a liberal. I prefer to describe myself a defense hawk. But i am impassioned in the defense of the idea that Democrats can be tough on national security and foreign policy. I wrote a few days back about President Obama’s tough “leading from behind”. His approach achieved our national priorities, yet it was also in line with the reality of our current resources. Furthermore, we did not need more international controversy. Rather we needed our allies to stand up. There was a great article in the Daily Beast which covered this more eloquently than me. I include it below, along with a link.

Obama as Hardheaded Liberal

Aug 26, 2011 8:02 PM EDT

The president was accused of neglecting alliances and ceding too much ground to allies in Libya, but this week’s successes in Tripoli prove he’s heir to Roosevelt and Truman.

Critics of President Obama are always banging on about his commitment to America’s alliance system. Yet the success of the NATO operation in Libya is the latest evidence of the effectiveness of his alliance approach.

It is true that during his campaign for president, Obama de-emphasized the role of alliances. He did not always draw bright lines between allies and other states. Instead he bracketed alliances with other, less intimate relationships, writing of his intention to rebuild “alliances, partnerships and institutions.” As the first president to come of age politically after the end of the Cold War, Obama did not seem to view alliances as special.

Republican provocateur John Bolton even claimed that Obama had “a post-alliance policy.”

However, President Obama has turned out to be much more alliance-friendly than candidate Obama. The “special relationship” with Britain has cooled somewhat, and he has reached out to new powers such as Indonesia. Yet despite the attacks of his critics, Obama’s approach to alliances sits squarely in the tradition established by his predecessors Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman.

Conservative commentators have mocked Obama’s belief in the efficacy of international rules. Obama wrote in The Audacity of Hope that “nobody benefits more than we do from the observance of the international ‘rules of the road.’” Many of these rules were established by Roosevelt and Truman, who believed that a rule-based system amplified U.S. power rather than constraining it. And it was the propensity of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia to break international rules and agreements that hardened those two presidents’ determination to contain and defeat them.

.In the Middle East, Obama has been criticized for walking away from America’s long-term friend President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, a step that worried officials in countries from Saudi Arabia to Israel. In fact, Obama’s response to the Arab Spring, though initially uncertain and clumsy, came to be characterized by a blend of caution and hardheaded liberalism. He now places a lesser premium than most of his recent predecessors did on the stability provided by Middle East allies, and a greater premium on their people’s right to democracy. But some of those allies can no longer provide stability anyway.

In the Egypt case, Obama is said to be insufficiently committed to allies. In the Libyan case, the opposite charge is leveled: that he ceded too much ground to allies, by allowing Britain, France, and other NATO allies to take the lead. Yet it would have been risky for the United States to lead another major military operation in the Middle East when it is already fighting two bloody wars nearby. It is especially galling when former officials of the Bush administration, which mismanaged the Afghanistan War, initiated the wrong-headed Iraq War, and blew out the Federal budget, refuse to acknowledge their own responsibility for the constraints that have limited America’s role in the Libya operation.

Viewing Libya another way, Obama has revived an old American tradition—exemplified by FDR’s foreign policy in the early stages of World War II—of using European allies as proxies to wage war when the United States is unable to take the leading position.

Events this week indicate that Obama’s approach in Libya has managed to cripple the Gaddafi regime in a way that maximizes the Libyan people’s ownership of the victory and minimizes the risks and costs to the United States. The contrast with George W. Bush’s approach in Iraq is stunning.

Obama’s Libya approach has managed to cripple the regime in a way that maximizes Libyan ownership of the victory and minimizes risks and costs to the U.S. The contrast with Bush’s Iraq approach is stunning.

Obama’s critics also fail to acknowledge that he is much more popular with allied publics than was his predecessor. This has not translated into greater assistance for the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan. On the other hand, it has restored drooping public support in allied countries for the idea of allying with Washington. For example, the number of Australians who believe the U.S. alliance is very important to their country’s security has shot up by 23 percent since the nadir of the Bush administration.

Of course, the biggest challenge to America’s position in the world comes not from the Middle East but from East Asia. And there, the president’s approach to China, and his commitment to America’s Asian allies, has strengthened significantly over his first term.

Initially Obama set out to accommodate Beijing’s interests and its claims. Yet the Chinese leadership failed to clasp his outstretched hand, disappointing the world at Copenhagen, failing to rein in its North Korean ally, and throwing its weight around in the region. Obama responded in kind, pushing back against the Chinese, taking two major trips to Asia, with significant stopovers in Tokyo and Seoul, and moving to deepen further America’s defense ties with Australia.

Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman, the founders of America’s alliance system, were hardheaded liberals. They would certainly recognize Barack Obama as their heir.

Like The Daily Beast on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for updates all day long.

Michael Fullilove is the director of the global issues program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia and a nonresident senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. A lawyer and historian by training, he was a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford and served as an adviser to the Australian prime minister. Fullilove’s next book, on the Second World War, will be published by The Penguin Press. You can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mfullilove.

Steven Casey is a reader in international history at the London School of Economics.

http://thebea.st

Filed under: 2012 Candidates on Defense & Security, Asian NATO, Middle East & Africa, NATO, United States Tagged: FDR, Foreign policy, liberal, Truman

Unlike Libya, regime change in Syria would have security implications for the U.S

Manish Thakur — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 13:46:23 +0000

This week’s regime change in Libya is a welcome development. The Libyan people can look forward to a much brighter future, even if the short or medium term may be messy, or even mildly Islamist. Lets not forget that the former dictator was an out and out terrorist who made Libya a pariah nation. Gadhafi was behind Lockberie, and provided support to terror groups from Palestine to Ireland. He became such a thorn in the side of the West that Ronald Reagan ordered air raids against his Tripoli home, killing his adopted daughter. In some ways, Gadhafi never changed. In recent years, he made common cause with Hugo Chavez, our own hemisphere’s rogue. But this alliance was probably more annoying than anything else. (Given Chavez’ determination to cause problems for the U.S., nothing should be taken for granted.) For all of this though, Gadhafi had in fact reached an uneasy coexistence with the West in recent years. He had given up his WMD program, and begun a domestic modernization program. Gadhafi may have been a bad man, but was no longer an immediate threat to the West. Though overthrow may be a compelling story, it will have little impact on U.S. security (with the possible side-effect of missiles falling in the hands of Al Qaeda or other groups).

Syria is, however, quite a different story. Its dictatorship may be just as bad as Libya’s (even if Hafez Assad, was initially seen as something of a reformer), but its geopolitical role is quite different. It is involved in virtually every trouble spot of note in the Middle East. It is in direct conflict with Israel. It is an indispensable player in Lebanon, backing Hizbollah, its divisive and destructive terrorist group/government. It borders Iraq, and has the potential to cause us problems there. It is, however, its relationship with Iran that should really make us sit up. Syria is a largely Sunni country, but run by Alawites – a small sect closer to the Shia Islam of Iran. It serves as Iran’s beachhead into the Arab World, aiding its climb to regional power status, something that we inadvertently made possible by removing Saddam Hussein, its traditional rival. United States foreign policy experts are clear that Iran poses a direct threat to our allies in Europe and Israel. Indeed our anti ballistic missile program is specifically aimed at defending from Iranian attacks. As importantly, Iran is a threat to our Sunni Arab allies in the Gulf, seeking to eclipse Saudi leadership, even “liberating” US allies such as Bahrain, a Shia-majority country ruled by Sunnis, and home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet. The competition between the Sunni Gulf headed by Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran is perhaps the most dangerous fault line in the region. Fallout from it could impact oil supplies so critical to the world economy.

Iran poses a real threat to our allies in Europe, Israel and the Sunni-dominated Gulf. Syria plays a key role in its grand strategy to become the dominant regional power. What happens in Syria is therefore of direct consequence to us. We may not be intervening in Syria, militarily, the way we did in Libya, but we should be far more concerned.

Filed under: Middle East & Africa, United States Tagged: Arab Spring, Assad, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Shia, Sunni, Syria

Sometimes leading from behind is the right thing to do

Manish Thakur — Fri, 26 Aug 2011 13:48:21 +0000

A number of U.S. politicians and defense specialists, John McCain included, have criticized the President for not taking an active public role in leading NATO action in Libya – for leading from behind. Such criticism, however, is based on cynical domestic politics, and not on well thought through international policies.

The United States is already fighting two open wars in the Islamic World, and waging a number of other battles from Pakistan to Yemen. As a result, we are seen as an intrusive, hostile force by Arab and Muslim people, no matter what our intentions. Loudly leading another front would only add to this rage, and undermine our interests. Furthermore, the American people themselves have no appetite for another land war in a Muslim country, especially a war that will be seen as one of choice. Rallying the American people for war – leading from the front – the way George W Bush did in Iraq would have been hugely unpopular.

In the Arab world, change is coming, whether we lead from the front, back, or not at all. The populations in the region’s autocracies and monarchies are getting younger, better informed and angrier. An explosion, driven by domestic unrest, was inevitable. The ouster of Ben Ali in Tunisia had nothing to do with us whatsoever. Similarly, Egypt’s revolution was led by the students in Tahrir Square, though the removal of U.S. support was the critical turning point in Mubarak’s decision in stepping down. The uprising in Libya also started as a purely domestic affair. It was only Gadhafi’s threat of massacring the people of Masrata that moved us to seek UN authorization for Western intervention.

It is clear now that NATO’s intentions went far beyond the humanitarian action authorized by the UN. London and Paris, it seems, decided that it was in their interests to see the end of the Gadhafi’s government, and so sought an old fashioned regime change. Whether this was a smart move or not, time will tell, but openly announcing this intention to remove another Arab government would have outraged the Arab World and denied the Libyan rebels the legitimacy they needed with their own people. From an American perspective, rallying the American people to take the lead in an attack on a country not threatening us, would have been counterproductive, particularly as this was clearly something being sought by Europe, and not us. As it was Congress was unhappy with the way the U.S. got involved. Ultimately, this was a British and French decision, and it was therefore there’s to lead. The continued relevance of NATO, in fact, demanded that the U.S. not be seen to be carrying the entire burden of Western defense. No doubt, US military support was indispensable, and it was provided – just without fanfare or primetime noise.

In the end analysis, we can only judge the effectiveness of a policy by reviewing its results. As NATO operations wind down, these are now plain to see. Massacres were avoided in Masrata. Regime change was effected in Tripoli. The Arab Street did not erupt in rage against the United States. The Europeans took the lead in their own defense, a U.S. foreign policy goal. NATO unity was maintained. And the U.S. public has largely stood behind NATO actions.

I therefore see no other conclusion that President Obama’s approach of leading from behind has been hugely successful.

Filed under: 2012 Candidates on Defense & Security, Europe, Middle East & Africa, NATO, United States Tagged: Arab Spring, Gadhafi, Libya, Tripoli

What the Pentagon China report says, and what Daily Exception suspects it does not

Manish Thakur — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 16:00:47 +0000

First of all, let me admit that I have not read all 84 pages of the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military in any detail. But judging by the summary and from press reports, none of its main conclusions surprise me. I suspect, however, it may miss a bigger perspective that also needs to be examined.

Congress mandates the Pentagon to produce an annual report on the state of China’s military. China is offended that they are being judged by a foreign country – and that the U.S. has no right to judge them. China is wrong. All countries do net assessments of threats. In the U.S., its a more open process, given Congress’ own concern. At its core is a realization that China is a core challenger to the U.S. – a competition that could one day become military, especially over Taiwan. But it is more than that. China has been unusually secretive about its military, and prevents military to military contacts with the United States. In the lack of information, Congress is especially anxious to understand what is going on. By its own lack of transparency, China itself has added weight to the annual Pentagon report.

From what it appears, there are a couple of key take-aways from the report, which i will be going through in the coming days

1. The Chinese military budget is growing – China spends $160B in defense (vs $550B for us). Note that given China’s personnel costs are so much lower than ours, the “real” effective spending, is much higher. Add to the fact that defense budgets threaten to gut our spending while there’s is rising rapidly, parity in defense spending is a possibility in a decades time

2. China is closing the technological gap – in reality, the Chinese are very far behind us. Most of their best developments have been gleaned from the Russians or stolen technology from the U.S. – whether through cyberespionage, or by getting hands on our equipment (including the stealth helicopter used in the Raid on Abbotabad, and passed along by our ostensible ally, Pakistan)

3. China is growing its maritime profile – far in excess of anything required to mount an invasion of Taiwan. Of note is the launch of PLAN’s first aircraft carrier. In reality, the aircraft carrier is nothing but a test vehicle, and even when China does launch something more modern, they have no experience in carrier air combat. This will take decades to learn. Far more pressing is China’s land based anti-carrier missiles. These potentially threaten the US Navy’s entire approach of forward deployment in the Western Pacific and South China Sea. Its what is driving updates to the US AirSea Battle plan. More on this in future posts. Longer term, China wants carriers to project its power far from its shoreline. Most attention is being given to their intentions in the South China Sea. In fact, the Chinese have a clear intention of gaining mastery of the Indian Ocean, through which most of the world’s oil supply lines lie. Future U.S.-Chinese naval tensions are therefore as likely to be found in the Indian Ocean as much as the South China or Yellow Sea.

4. China is advancing in asymmetric technologies. China has become adept in using low cost technologies to neutralize enormously expensive US platforms. China’s carrier busting missiles are an example of this. There are others. In the area of cyberwar, it is clear that China has mounted major espionage efforts against the United States, Europe and India. Not only are they looking for intellectual trade secrets, but they are trying to undermine our critical infrastructure and learn our military game plans. We are currently in the early stages of cyberwar – stay tuned. This is a problem that is only going to grow. The other area where China is using low cost technologies to hit us where it hurts is in space. Our entire military relies on space-based assets for command, communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Knocking out our GPS satellites could have a major impact on us.

The Pentagon is right to focus on this.

So far so good. The Pentagon paints a picture of a rising giant, developing a much larger military with an ability and intention to project power in the Western Pacific, South China Sea and Indian Ocean. It is also one that has invested in technologies to deny U.S. its traditional advantages. My concern is we may be missing another picture here. China is not projecting power for its own sake – they are doing so (understandably) to protect their natural resource supply chains. Hence the rise of their navy (and also its military links into resouce-rich Central Asia). But China now gets its resources from all parts of the world. Accordingly, it is only logical to assume that it ultimately plans to have a global military that would match our own. Perhaps the first place we will see this is in our own backyard of Latin America. Already, China is Brazil and Argentina’s #1 trading partner. China’s trade with the region will only grow as Brazil ramps up its oil production. Furthermore, food security will cause China to look further afield in Latin America for supplies. As it is, the Chinese have keen interests in Panama, and they have been known to be in discussions to build a canal across Mexico (to reduce reliance on the Panama Canal). They obviously have a friendly face in Venezuela, and are believed to have listening stations in Cuba. i do not want to be alarmist that there is a ‘Red Menace” threatening us from the South. But clearly, the trend lines are there.

The Pentagon report looks like it covers all the main areas where we face a threat. i will be going through each of these, and writing on them over the coming days. But the overall framework of our analysis of China’s military must no longer be regional in nature or looking at US-China rivalries in space or cybertechnology. We now need to have a global perspective – not as a repeat of the US-Soviet Cold War but as a modern-day competition for resources, influence, and ultimately values.

Filed under: Asia/Pacific, China, United States

Time to buy guns and gold?

Manish Thakur — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 15:40:50 +0000

In general, I hate to be alarmist. But recent events tell me that we are reaching a psychological turning point in the world. Weak economic data out of the U.S., combined with continuing worries in the Eurozone continue to spook the markets. More than just the numbers, the inability of the political establishment (in either the U.S. or Europe) to deal with the economic crises is spooking the market even more. In fact, it is this lack of faith in government that caused S&P to downgrade the U.S.

While the world’s finances go into free fall, the political situation is fast deteriorating as well. Violence of the worst kind continues to plague Libya and Syria. Continued attacks in Iraq, Pakistan and now Israel also punctuate the morning news. But more telling than these is the less destructive but equally worrying violence in London. There is no doubt in my mind that what happened in the British capital was criminality. But these things do not come out of nowhere. They are a result of the alienation and sense of hopelessness of a new generation that is about to enter the work world. I suspect that this alienation is widespread across Europe. There is a possibility (though not yet a probability) that this unrest will spread to the United States. Over the longer term, even when economic growth returns, if the benefits only accrue to a few, and a majority is left flipping burgers, the scene is still set for a social explosion.

For all the market and social reasons I outline above, I believe some of the brightest long term spots in the world economy may now be guns (ie the security industry) and gold. Gold is an easy proposition. The U.S. currency is most likely going to be debased, whichever way you look at it, and the Euro is not giving much room for comfort. Continued malaise in Japan and the lack of convertibility of the Renminbi suggests there are few other places to hide. Investors will look to gold as a safe haven (even though they will continue to look to the U.S. dollar for some time given the lack of alternatives). A more difficult proposition is guns. After all, cutting the deficit is going to hit the defense industry more than any other. However, this is a short term view. History has shown that it is at times of economic stress that you see domestic unrest and heightened geopolitical tensions. Well, the unrest is already here. As for geopolitical tension, Asia is entering into an arms race, that is spreading from China to Japan to Australia and India. It is only a matter of time till the U.S. doubles down in the region too. Over the medium term, after the current cuts, it is entirely possible that the defense sectors in the U.S. and globally are reenergized.

So what does this market meltdown and social unrest tell me? It may be time, at least psychologically speaking, to be thinking guns and gold.

Filed under: Asia/Pacific, Europe, United States, US Defense Industry Tagged: gold, guns and gold, social unrest